Monday 15 February 2016

Could Intercept Pharmaceutical be the Pump and Dump of the month or even the year


Intercept Pharmaceutical on the Pump and Dump watch

From pure technicals the stock did break out but it hit resistance heavily at $128.75 and has been down trending ever since 12:50 with the lowest price coming $92.45 3 mins after close on 18,570 shares 28.19% drop. Some dumped read on to find out why.

If you look back last month I gave a similar warning on Synaptics $SYNA you can see how that played out, Intercept Pharmaceutical $ICPT is now playing that same game.

With the earnings miss of $0.46 a share it proves that the company is not profitable even though they have $558.7 million in cash. Due to 2 reasons that money came from TWO (2) public follow ons in 2015 and they estimate a need of $400 million just for the current trials alone. Any new trials will require more funding with such a small float the dilution could be as much as 20% in share float.

Intercept posts SEC 13G listed 6.4% ownership = 1,567,537 on FEB10th NO PRICE listed for avg share means this is worthless information but you can bet the acquisition was completed in the price $91.44-$96.01 or much lower.  http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1270073/000142284916000618/edgicpt.txt

Less than 10% can sell at their hearts content into any pop which makes this an easy game, file 13G with no share per price avg, bump price, halt it saying looking for buyer, sell into pop, dump after hours if needed. Technical traders would have bought the break out and would not see the after hours drop on any intraday scans.

Based on this intercept is a better short than long because the fundamentals have not changed this still is not going to make any money till the FDA approves and that is not a sure thing.

Results weren`t great in trial but they were positive in using obeticholic acid as a treatment for primary biliary cirrhosis, or PBC, an autoimmune disease that causes bile acids to build up and destroy the liver.

Originally, obeticholic acid, also known as OCA, was slated to be approved (or given a complete response letter detailing what would need to be corrected for approval) in February. However, additional data requests from the Food and Drug Administration wound up pushing the PDUFA date back three months, to May 29, 2016. The FDA also set up a panel review for April 7, 2016.

If this was a sure thing then why do we have selling from insiders and the dump at 4:03 of 18,570 shares with a final price of $92.45.


Insiders selling none are buying since 2014

Insider Trading: Sales

Insider
Price
Amount
Relationship
Remaining Holdings
Date
Form 4
$103.56
128
Officer
7,621
2016-02-01
$129.99
104
Officer
11,700
2016-01-13
$124.78
624
Officer
11,804
2016-01-12
$145.90
469
Officer
7,749
2016-01-04
$145.90
428
Officer
24,892
2016-01-04
$145.90
40
Officer
25,320
2016-01-04
$145.90
496
Officer
40,911
2016-01-04
$145.90
37
Officer
41,407
2016-01-04
$145.90
125
Officer, Director
529,556
2016-01-04
$145.90
2,001
Officer, Director
529,681
2016-01-04
$157.45
1,000
Officer
28,395
2015-12-15
$157.38
2,500
Officer
29,395
2015-12-15
$182.96
1,150
Officer
12,428
2015-11-25
$167.00
973
Director
962
2015-11-20
$179.49
1,500
Officer
28,395
2015-11-16
$178.00
2,764
Officer
29,895
2015-11-16
$198.25
1,000
Director
2,166
2015-11-10
$204.15
3,500
Officer
29,159
2015-11-10
$160.24
125
Officer
8,218
2015-11-02
$182.22
974
Director
962
2015-10-20

Insider Trading: Purchases

Insider
Price
Amount
Relationship
Remaning Holdings
Date
Form 4
$139.86
800
Director
1,292
2014-12-15
$163.27
500
Director
7,642
2014-11-12
$173.67
1,000
Director
7,142
2014-11-12
$158.18
500
Director
6,142
2014-11-12
$15.00
333,334
Large Shareholder
2,150,634
2012-10-16
$15.00
700,000
Director
700,000
2012-10-16
$15.00
333,334
Large Shareholder, Director
2,150,634
2012-10-16

Lastly if someone did want to buy this company why would they pay a premium, buy before the FDA approval and why would the company be looking now to sell so close to the "approval"? Smells fishy $SYNA fishy to me

Based on this I am calling this a SHORT not a squeeze.

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